DRF Tournaments
Carsoni NHC Tour
Wins/Races Profit (loss)
9/113 ($45.20)

BC Juvenile Fillies

Win: Blonde Bomber
Place: Moonshine Memories
Show: Heavenly Love

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Separationofpowers 2- 4+ 122
Piedi Bianchi 5+ 5- 122
Heavenly Love 5+ 5- 122
Gio Game 5" 5- 122
Moonshine Memories 6 6- 122
Princess Warrior 6 6- 122
Blonde Bomber 6 6-/8+ 122
Caledonia Road 4- 6+ 122
Alluring Star 7" 7- 122
Wonder Gadot 8- S 8- 122
Stainless 9" 9- 122
Maya Malibu 9+ 9- 122
Tell Your Mama 16" 16- 122

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Apologies for posting so late. IN the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge and way over-handicapping!

Blonde Bomber is getting little notice, yet she's tearing it up on the track. She goes 2 turns for the first time. No big whoop. Her mom could route and her daddy won the BC Classic.

Moonshine Memories may not be much faster than these. But I like the pattern and the works.

Heavenly Love is fast enough is she can repeat.

BC Turf Sprint

Win: Pure Sensation
Place: Lady Aurelia
Show: Bucchero

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Pure Sensation –0" 0- 126
Lady Aurelia 0 0- 121
Disco Partner 0 0-/1+ 126
Marsha (IRE) 0" 0 123
Holding Gold 0 0-1 126
Richard's Boy 1+ 1 126
Bucchero 2" 2- 126
Hogy –1- 2 126
Guns Loaded 2+ 2 ? 126
Stormy Liberal 2" 2 ? 126
Mongolian Saturday 0 3- 126
Cotai Glory (GB) 3 3- 126
Washington DC (IRE) 2" 3 ? 126
Paquita Coqueta (CHI) 4 5- 123

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Pure Sensation looked really good in his last. Outside post a concern. But great works and good spacing. And he blew the doors off a Belmont field from the outside when running a 0. Owners like his chances better than Disco Partner.

Lady Aurelia has a big shot. But thinking she'll be under value.

Bucchero just matched his top, and has upside.

BC F&M Sprint

Win: Finley'sluckycharm
Place: Curlin's Approval
Show: Finest City

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Finley'sluckycharm –2 –1- 124
Curlin's Approval –1 –1-/1+ 124
Paulassilverlining –3" 0 124
Proper Discretion 0" 0 ? 124
Finest City 0 0-1 124
By the Moon –0" 0-1 124
Highway Star 0" 0-2 124
Ami's Mesa 1 s 1- 124
Carina Mia 1 1- 124
Skye Diamonds 1- 1- 124
Unique Bella 1 2- 122
Bar of Gold –4 3- 124
Constellation 2" 3- 124
Princess Karen 4 4 122

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Finley'sluckycharm looks like she could CRUSH the field. Runs a –1 or better, and has already run a –2. Only negative is that she ran that minus 1 with a heavy speed bias, No idea the conditions for running the minus 2. Works say yes. Good post for her natural speed, but if she doesn't break well she still has a chance, as proven by her last race. I will be betting this one heavily!

Here are horses I will use underneath, not in any specific order as of yet: Curlin's Approval, Paulassilverlining, Finest City.

BC F&M Turf

Win: Zipessa
Place: War Flag
Show: Cambodia

 

Comments:

Horse Top Proj. Wght
Lady Eli 1" 1- 124
Zipessa 2+ 2-4 124
Cambodia 3 3- 124
Goodyearforroses (IRE) 3" 3- 124
War Flag 3" 3- 124
Nezwaah (GB) 3 3 124
Dacita (CHI) 1" 3 124
Grand Jete (GB) 4" 4- 124
Queen's Trust (GB) 3- 4+ 124
Kitten's Roar 2 4+ 124
Rhododendron (IRE) 5- 5- 121
Avenge 4+ 5- 124
Wuheida (GB) 5" 5- 121
Senga 6+ 6- 121
Responsibleforlove (IRE) 6" 6- 124
Birdie Gold ? ? 121

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Lady Eli is a force. I actually bet her big last year in this race, and can't believe she lost. That mens she is not untouchable. She's only a little faster than these, and she's going to be coming off the pace, and anything could happen. Many people I know want to single her in all multis. I just think she's going to be overbet this year. She's been odds-on every race this year and I think she goes off no higher than 7-5 this year. So I will play against her but use her in backup exactas and doubles.

Zipessa finally woke up last race. She hadn't won since July of 2016. What was the reason for the wakeup? Was it that she turned back to a mile, where 3 of her 4 victories have occurred? Yes, that was a part of it. But she had also just run a tiny top when she lost to Miss Temple City. She was sitting on go for the race of her life. It's not noted in the chart, but she was rank at the beginning of her last race.

Now, she could easily bounce off that race (she ran a 2pt top). But she also might just keep going. It's been done before in this race. It's another eighth of a mile. She's run fast at 1 1/4, so why not here at a price? Last year she ran a 4 at a mile and a quarter in this race. She started from the 13-hole and finished 5th at 53-1. The had to drop back and make a huge run, not her normal running style.

This year she starts in the 4-hole. She should be able to establish position and shade Avenge and unleash a big run. What about the bounce potential? She certainly has that potential, but she has such a foundation that I think she can run another big race. I'll be rewarded if she does.

Cambodia is 2/2 at Del Mar and 1/1 at the distance. She's 3 for her last 4, and I see no reason she's not going to run another bangup race.

War Flag has a good post, and just ran a small top of 3.5. I really think the tri is going to come from these 4 horses, and will be betting accordingly!

BC Sprint

Win: Whitmore
Place: Drefong
Show: Ransom the Moon

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Whitmore –5- –5 ? 126
Roy H –4 –4 ? 126
Drefong –3+ –3- 126
Imperial Hint –5+ –3+ 126
Mind Your Biscuits –2" –2 126
Takaful –4" –2+ 124
Ransom the Moon –1" –1+ 126
Calculator –3- 0 ? 126
American Pastime –2 0+ 124
B Squared 3 5+ 124

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Whitmore ran exceptionally fast early in the year. He is circling back to that, and could shock Southern California. Drefong looks formidable. Mind Your Biscuits could do it.

BC Mile

Win: Suedois
Place: Zelzal
Show: World Approval

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
World Approval –0" 0- 126
Suedois (FR) 0+ 0-2 126
Ballagh Rocks 0 0-2 126
Heart to Heart 0 1- 126
Lancaster Bomber 2+ 2- 123
Om 0" 2- 126
Home of The Brave (IRE) 2" 2 ? 126
Blackjackcat 2 2+ 126
Ribchester (IRE) 1 2+ 126
Zelzal (FR) 3" 3- 126
Karar (GB) 3 3- 126
Mr. Roary 3 3- 126
Midnight Storm –1 d 3 126
Roly Poly 4- 4- 120

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

There's gotta be a pace meltdown here, no? Thinking that. So let's handicap accordingly.

World Approval is about as fast as Tepin. Trainer knows how to keep turf milers going. Deserving favorite. He has speed but can close. Gotta figure they let the speed demons go here and tuck in for a cozy trip. He was only on lead in last because he broke from the rail.

Suedois is now horse. Ran a 0 first time US. Can close. Why not again?

Zelzal is a closer with a good post. Nearly matched his top in last on soft. Gets first lasix.

Mr. Roary came from off the pace in last. Pattern is good. I really think anything can happen in this race.

BC Juvenile

Win: Free Drop Billy
Place: Solomini
Show: Bolt d'Oro

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Bolt d'Oro –1" –1-/0+ 122
Solomini 2- 2- 122
Free Drop Billy 5 5- 122
The Tabulator 5+ 5- 122
Firenze Fire 3+ 5 122
Good Magic 3 5+ 122
Givemeaminit 6 6- 122
Hollywood Star 7 7- 122
Hazit 5 7+ 122
U S Navy Flag 5+ t 7+ 122
Bahamian 10" 10- 122
Golden Dragon 13 t 13- 122

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Free Drop Willy is 3rd slowest, but has the best pattern, pointing to a top effort here. Trainer got second with Not The Time last year. All reports from the works are good. I saw him in person Wednesday and he looked a picture of health. I'm counting on him running the race of his life to beat Bolt d'Oro today.

Solomini is fast, as he proved in his last race. Only question is... was it *too* fast? I feel like he was really asked and it might have taken something out of him. It was a big move from his first race.

Bolt is probably fast enough to hang on for 3rd.

BC Turf

Win: Seventh Heaven
Place: Decorated Knight
Show: Talismanic

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Bullards Alley –2 0++ 126
Sadler's Joy 1" 1- 126
Decorated Knight (GB) 1" 1- 126
Highland Reel (IRE) 0 1- 126
Beach Patrol 1 1 126
Talismanic (GB) 2 2- 126
Seventh Heaven (IRE) 2+ 2- 123
Bigger Picture 2" 2- 126
Itsinthepost (FR) 2 2- 126
Hunt (IRE) 3 3- 126
Oscar Performance 3" 3- 122
Fanciful Angel (IRE) 3" 3- 126
Cliffs of Moher (IRE) 4" 4- 122

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Decorated Knight ran a small top in his last race. That was a 25-1 shocker in a $1.7 million race. It was on yielding at 1 1/4 miles. His previous best was a 1 3/4 when he nosed out Ulysses on a good/firm course. Can he get the distance? I don't see why not. His sire is Galileo, and his granddam was a multiple stakes winner routing on turf and dirt. Most important is that he has a great post and will be big value. Did I mention that in person he looked princely?

Talismanic is trained by Andre Fabre, and his line looks very sweet. He hasn't done that much in Europe, but is 3/9 at the distance. The one thing I noticed is that he's never won at above 5-2. Most of his wins are as favorite. I just don't know if he classes up here. In the Arc last year he was 40-1 and ran like it.

Itsinthepost has a winner pattern. He's 2/2 at the distance and will get a good trip tracking the pace. My concern would be if too many horses go for the lead to foil his perfect trip and get him going faster early than he would like. But I will use under.

Seventh Heaven ran a nice race at the distance on good/firm turf back in May. She was off until two comeback races recently. This is her 3rd off a layoff, and if the Euro-numbers I am reading are correct, she has a big shot to run a new top. She's 3/7 at the distance and gets a weight break. She was only 1 3/4 lengths behind Lady Eli in the F&M Turf last year. I like the 20-1 ML. I'm going to use under, but may put her on top in actual betting. Just saw that last year she beat Found and Queen's Trust at the distance. She also beat Highland Reel in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Aw heck I'm going to put her on top of the whole schmear.

Highland Reel looks capable of winning this race on the lead again. The only thing I don't like is that last year his races were spaced perfectly to win. This year he comes in on 2 weeks rest. That could be ok since he didn't run near his top. But there is the potential for a reaction, and he's 5-1 ML. And the course has favored closers for the past two days.

BC Classic

Win: West Coast
Place: Gunnevera
Show: Mubtaahij

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Arrogate –5+ –5 126
Gun Runner –5" –3-5 126
Gunnevera –2" –2-/0+ 122
West Coast –2+ –2- 122
Collected –5 –2+ 126
Mubtaahij (IRE) –1- 0- 126
Win the Space 0" 0- 126
Pavel –2 0+ 122
War Story –1" 1 126
Churchill (IRE) 2" 2- 122
War Decree 4 s 4- 122

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

I hope I don't have to bet this race in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge.

Gunnevera looks like an ok alternative to the big boys. He's a dead closer and there's a bunch of speed here today. Arrogate is going to have to go from the inside, and Gun Runner is going to want to be right here. Then you have Collected, Pavel, and who knows what West Coast is going to do.

Speaking of West Coast: He's getting crushed on PH right now. He's favored over Gun Runner! It almost makes me want to play Gun Runner here. But I have to make a pick so I'm just going to take him. By all accounts he is training like a beast. He's just about fast enough to win, and gets a weight break. More important: he hasn't run a freakishly fast number.

Arrogate has proven that he is over the top. He might be training ok now but so was Mor Spirit, and he dogged it. I'm thinking there's a good chance Arrogate is done. And he will be favored.

Gun Runner just ran a minus 5. That's an incredible number... and it's possible he will do it again. But now he stretches to a distance he's never won at, off the fig of a lifetime. There could be value in taking the opposing view.

Not sure how I will bet this in the BCBC, if I even have money left. But thinking West Coast on top of some of the others, including Gunnevera.

Good luck and enjoy the Breeders' Cup!


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