DRF Tournaments
Carsoni NHC Tour
Wins/Races Profit (loss)
2/36 $0.00

S.M. Turf

Win: Swagger Jagger
Place: Second Mate
Show: Galleon Mast

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Galleon Mast 2 2 121
Our Way 4 4- 119
Spring Up 4 4- 121
Swagger Jagger 5" 5- 117
Enterprising 4 5- 121
Second Mate 5+ 5- 117
Charlie Mops 5 8- 117
Manchurian High 2" 8- 119

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Galleon Mast looks like a solid favorite. Sharp work Jan 13, go time. He's fastest here. Only negative? He carries extra weight and his price. Now I see that Our Way is 3-1 and Enterprising is 2-1 ML. Seems nuts to me

I'm going to take a chance with Swagger Jagger. He ran an 8 as a 2YO, and recently ran a 5.5. That means he's only developed 3 pts. He was claimed for $25k two back, then Maker reclaimed for $35k. Since then his works have picked up. He gets in light. He'll get an easy trip 2-wide outside Charlie Mops and could close the deal. I like this play and will be playing it hard. Will back up in exactas with Galleon Mast and Second Mate.

Second Mate just ran a small top and still has upside as a just-turned-5YO.

Fire Plug

Win: Someday Jones
Place: It's the Journey
Show: Something Awesome

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
It's the Journey –1 –1 120
Favorite Tale –2" 0++ 122
Someday Jones 1" 1- 120
Something Awesome 1- 1- 118
Rockinn On Bye –1 1+ 118
Flashy Kyem 2 2- 118
Awesome Banner –2" 2+ 118
Two Charley's 1+ 3 118
Colonel Sharp 3 4- 118

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

In case you haven't heard, Chief Lion, Do Share, and Life in Shambles are scratching due to quarantine at Belmont Park.

I like Someday Jones. He got down to a 1.5, took some time off, and came back after 6 months in a winning effort. He's run inside before and can make this happen. He's 5/6 sprinting, with a second.

It's the Journey ran a big minus 1 three races ago, and is now circling back to that. Could take it all.

Something Awesome looks real good off two wins at LRL. But he's being pounded on PH at 4-1 so I will go with the better price.

Las Cienegas

Win: Beau Recall
Place: Anita Partner
Show: Bendable

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Bendable 2" d 2- 122
Coniah 3" 3- ? 120
Proper Discretion 0" d 3 ? 122
Anita Partner (IRE) 4" 4- 120
Beau Recall (IRE) 4+ 4- 120
Princess Princess 6 6- 120
Miss Southern Miss 7+ 7- 120
Instant Reflex 7" 7- 120
Angel Allie 9 9- 120

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Hard to take Bendable as favorite in first-time turf, even though she projects the fastest number.

Beau Recall has burned a lot of my PH money and is 7-2 here. The pattern is good, and no reason she shouldn't be able to sprint. She's also going to get some serious class relief. I could agonize over this race and look for a longshot, but I'm just going to take Beau Recall again and hope for the best. She does have the most confident-looking line here.

California Derby

Win: East Rand
Place: Generally Lucky
Show: Choo Choo

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Choo Choo 8+ t 8- 116
East Rand 11- t 11- 116
Mugaritz 12" 12- 116
Generally Lucky 12+ 12- 116
Intimidate 12+ 12- 122
Kylemore 11" t 12- 116
Campaigner 13 d 13- 116
Ministersdontparty 13 d 13- 116

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Choo Choo looks tough, but he's going to get hammered.

East Rand is second-fastest, and shows a good number on synth (that stake at Arlington). His works have picked up since his last race. I don't know what happened in that last race, but it looks like he's ready to pop. 8-1 ML and 12-1 PH (early).

Generally Lucky is either a sprinter, or has a big chance here. He was 3-4 wide the entire trip last time in a 6-horse field. Pretty sad. But if the jock focuses on the rail, maybe he can come in at a price.

This one is pretty unbettable.


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