DRF Tournaments
Carsoni NHC Tour
Wins/Races Profit (loss)
9/84 $12.80

Pa Derby Champion

Win: Ike Walker
Place: Discreet Lover
Show: Matt King Coal

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Just Call Kenny 2 – –2-/0+ 124
Page McKenney –2- –1? 124
Matt King Coal 0" 0- 121
Donegal Moon 0 0- ? 119
Mr. Jordan -2 0+ 119
Grasshoppin 1+ 1- 119
Discreet Lover 2 2 ? 119
Sea Raven 2- 2- 119
Ike Walker 3+ 3- 119

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

The only play here is IKE WALKER. Yes he's the slowest horse in the race... but I like the cut of his jib. He recently ran near his top, and is circling back to that. I think he can run a new top and shock the Parx denizens. I am not one to think that just because Hollendorfer ships that means he thinks he's going to win. But he won this race last year, and he's a part-owner of this horse. And this horse is coming off a facile win that came up a solid number. Galloped out big too. He ran a big number as a 2YO and hasn't improved on that too much. I think he can do it here though. Big number, big price.

I think a lot of these are pretty ouchy. But Matt King Coal is not one of them. He is most likely winner on the numbers.

In second I'm going to put Discreet Lover. He's got some ability and has won $400k. He loves Parx.

Just Call Kenny just ran the fastest race of his life. He has a history of reacting to big efforts, so I don't want him at six years old and 124 lbs.

Les Ahrens Memorial

Win: Chip Leader
Place: Coco Mon
Show: Cammack

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Kasaqui (ARG) 2- 2+ 121
Cammack 3- 3- 121
Coco Mon 3- 3- 121
Applicator 3 3-5 121
Spring Up 4 4- 124
Chip Leader 3" 4- 121
Crewman 0" d 4+ 121
Christian C 4" 4-6 121
Oak Brook 3" 5+ 121
Imposing Will 8" 8- 118

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

Chip Leader has the most upside to me. He's been working lights out, trainer is on fire. Jock leaves for Kasaqui, and who wouldn't? Still, that horse seems likely to have peaked while this one has upside.

Coco Mon can win off a layoff.

Cammack has a shot but may have run his best for the year already.

Dogwood

Win: Perfect Wife
Place: Pinch Hit
Show: Cara Blythe

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Student Body 2 2 ? 118
Farrell 4" 4- 122
Cara Blythe 4+ 4 118
Nineteenth Street 4+ 4 ? 118
Covenant 5+ 5- 118
Pinch Hit 5 5- 118
Tequilita 5 5- 122
Too Much Tip 5 5- 122
Perfect Wife 6" 6- 118
Minnie Blip 6+ 6- ? 118
No More Babies 7" 7- 118
Jordan's Henny 8- 8- 118
My Sweet Stella 8 9- 118
Champagne Problems 9- 9- 118

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

This is a nutty race and anything could happen. Farrell will be tough if she is ready... but at high weight off the layoff it's time to try and beat her.

Perfect Wife is a classy filly who has to overcome the 13-hole (assuming Tequilita scratches). She was fast at 2, winning a stake and earning the best 2YO number other than Farrell. Toss her two races as an early 3YO where she was fractious and had trouble. Her last was clearly a prep. McPeek hits second off the layoff, turf to dirt, at 27% with a $2.00 ROI. He appears to be zeroing in on this meet: he's 3/11 at Churchill. I really don't like the post position and for that reason won't bet real money. But I do think she has a chance to win this in 'capper country.

Pinch Hit was my other choice. I mulled over these two fillies for a while. Pinch Hit is fast enough, has the inside, and is a nice price. I just think she will be played a little, and Perfect Wife will surely be a 'capper. Pinch Hit had her best workout ever since her last race... hope I don't regret playing Perfect Wife.

Cara Blythe is circling back to a number that could win here. Another 'capper possibility.

Covenant looks good but her last was a slop victory, and she's going to be played.

Charles Town Oaks

Win: R Angel Katelyn
Place: Sine Wave
Show: Overture

 

Comments:
Horse Top Proj. Wght
Shimmering Aspen 1 1-3 118
Downtown Mama 4 4 118
Stormy Embrace 4+ 4-6 118
Tequilita 5 5- 123
R Angel Katelyn 5- 5- ? 118
Sine Wave 5- 5 118
Chanel's Legacy 5- 5 ? 120
Astrollinthepark 6- 6- 118
Overture 6- 6- 123
Yorkiepoo Princess 6 6 118
Stay Fond 5" 7 118
Munny Spunt 8- 8- 123
Berned 8- 8- 118
Who's the Lady 8- 8+ 118

Key: 4- = 3.75, 4+ = 4.25, 4" = 4.5
When I project a – it means, "or lower "
When I project a + it means, "or higher"

This race is also super tough. I'm going to roll with R Angel Katelyn. SHe's always been fast, and is 2/3 at the distance. THere's a lot of speed in here but I think she can sit just off and blow by 'em late. Trainer 3/12 at track.

Sine Wave probably wants to sprint, and could get back to her top here today.

If Shimmering Aspen gets in she rocks as heavy favorite.,


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